Climate change and conflict amplified deadly floods in Libya - study
Scientists from the World Weather Attribution group determined that such a catastrophic event in northeastern Libya typically occurs once every 300-600 years
New research indicates that climate change, coupled with conflict and poor dam maintenance, significantly increased the likelihood and severity of deadly flooding in Libya.
A deluge of unprecedented magnitude struck the city of Derna on September 10, following heavy rains that overwhelmed two dams, sweeping entire buildings and numerous residents into the Mediterranean Sea.
Scientists from the World Weather Attribution group determined that such a catastrophic event in northeastern Libya typically occurs once every 300-600 years. They found that human-induced global warming contributed to both the increased likelihood and intensity of the rains, with up to a 50 percent rise in rainfall during this period.
In a comprehensive report examining the floods associated with Storm Daniel, which affected various Mediterranean regions in early September, researchers revealed that climate change made heavy rainfall up to ten times more probable in Greece, Bulgaria, and Turkey and up to 50 times more likely in Libya.
Nevertheless, the study underscores that multiple factors, including conflict and inadequate dam maintenance, transformed this extreme weather event into a humanitarian catastrophe.
To analyze the role of global warming in exacerbating extreme events, scientists from WWA employ climate data and computer models to compare today's climate, marked by approximately 1.2 degrees Celsius of warming since pre-industrial times, with historical conditions.
While the study acknowledges the large mathematical uncertainties resulting from limited weather station data, particularly in Libya, and the small geographic scope of the events, which are less precisely represented in climate models, researchers express confidence that climate change significantly heightened the probability of such events.