Panic - Iran's struggle with Syrian upheaval

Iran was forced to recalculate its policy regarding Syria in light of the swift disintegration of regime resistance, according to a report in the New York Times on Sunday.

As opposition forces advanced, starting two weeks ago, Tehran promised full support for president Bashar al-Assad, but in recent days Iran has sought to withdraw its forces without a fight.

At first, the Iranian government was shocked at the speed at which the rebels in Syria progressed, according to Iranian sources - two of them senior members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and two prominent Iranian analysts close to the government.

In the middle of last week, said the official sources, Tehran went into full panic, as the rebels advanced and conquered city after city, first Aleppo, then Homs, and then Hama, followed by Deir ez-Zor and Daraa.

While publicly Iranian officials swore to remain totally committed to supporting Assad, privately, when the rebels gained control over more and more areas that were under Iranian influence, they began to realize events were beyond their ability to change the situation, the officials said.

The tone in Iran changed towards the weekend as several senior officials declared on social media that Assad's removal was inevitable.

An internal memo from a member of the revolution guard seen by The New York Times described the situation in Syria as "unbelievable and strange." It's as if "Iran has come to terms with Assad's fall and lost the will to oppose," the memo said.

Iran's state television switched from dubbing the Sunni rebels "infidel terrorists" to "armed groups," and reported that so far they have treated the Shiite minorities well.

The three Iranian officials said that Jaysh al-Islam, one of the main rebel group fighting in Syria, sent a diplomatic message to Iran this week. The organization promised to protect religious sites and Shiite minorities, and asked Iran not to fight against its forces, according to the officials. Iran, in turn, asked the organization to allow the safe passage of its soldiers out of Syria and to protect Shiite shrines.

Another concern for Iran was Israel's threat to attack any Iranian forces in Syria. Two flights of a private Iranian airline heading to Damascus were diverted back last week following warnings from Israel that it would shoot them down if they entered Syrian airspace, according to Iranian and Israeli sources. Israel said these flights were intended to transport weapons.