Iranian subversion breeds joint Israeli-Jordanian struggle against Tehran
Israel's actions against Iran, along with Amman to combat Iranian violations in Jordan, will make it clear to Tehran that it will bear the consequences for promoting terrorism against Israel
The two illegal weapons warehouses attributed to Iran and its proxies uncovered recently in the suburbs of Amman, the capital of Jordan, and revealed in the media, express the culmination of Iran-led Axis of Resistance activities in Jordan. Iran’s subversive activity in Jordan aims to make it a fertile ground for the implementation of Khamenei's 2014 order to arm the West Bank. To this end, Iran consistently increases its violation of Jordanian sovereignty and exploits weaknesses in the Hashemite kingdom. Reports in recent months have shown that there has been a significant increase in attempts to smuggle illegal weapons to Palestinians in the West Bank.
The current affair further sharpens the urgent need for Israel and Jordan to tighten security cooperation to curtail Iran's activities and subversion in the Jordanian region. Jordan relies heavily on intelligence assistance from Israel and the US, and tightening cooperation between Jerusalem and Amman will help ease tensions between them against the background of the war in Gaza. Israel is urgently required to complete its renewed preparations on the border with Jordan, to close the loopholes, and to strengthen the fence in weakened areas.
The December 2023 call by Revolutionary Guards chief Hossein Salami for the Palestinians to carry out another Al-Aqsa flood attack from the south, north, and east of Israel should serve as a sharp warning sign for the Israeli security establishment. One must also remember the plan by elements of the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance, revealed in the Israeli media last March, to infiltrate Israel from Jordan and carry out a large-scale attack on localities in its territory. The plan was dropped from the agenda because the plot was exposed, but it still serves as a wake-up call given the seriousness of the threat from the east.
At the beginning of April, a New York Times investigation revealed that Shiite militias supported by the Quds Force, as well as Iranian operatives in Tehran's terrorist organization, are carrying weapons from Syria to Jordan. From there, the armaments are transferred at the border to Bedouin smugglers, who then transport the weapon to the Israeli border, where it is transferred to criminal organizations who take it to the West Bank. From a Shin Bet countermeasure operation last March, we see the types of advanced armaments that Iran seeks to distribute in the West Bank, including cluster munitions, Iranian anti-aircraft mines, thunderbolts, anti-aircraft shoulder-fired missiles, RPGs, hand grenades, pistols, and assault rifles.
Israel does not have the privilege of waiting for the end of the war in Gaza - which will last for years. They need to design a new security doctrine that will immediately fit the reality of the aftermath of October 7. The tangible threat to Iran's leadership is not limited only to its nuclear program but rather to the tightening stranglehold set by Iran and its proxies. This has already created an unprecedented security zone in northern Israel. Israel, after October 7th, cannot stand by but must retaliate against Iran to ensure its national security. Some recommended courses of action would be to restrain Iran by various means, such as arrest operations on Iranian territory of Iranian terrorist operatives; this has been done before.
In April 2022, it was reported that the Mossad arrested - in Iran - Mansour Rasouli, an operative in Unit 840 of the Quds Force (a secret operational unit which is responsible for planning and establishing terrorist infrastructures outside of Iran, against Western and Israeli targets). Rasouli admitted that he planned to assassinate one of the employees of the Israeli consulate in Istanbul and even planned to assassinate a senior American general in Germany and a journalist in France.
The multi-arena challenge from Iran is now fully activated for the first time in what is known as the convergence of the arenas. Iran's proxies in Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon, the Gaza Strip, and, to a certain extent, Syria are attacking Israel in the current war. In doing so, they bring to fruition the Iranian ambition to choke Israel with a stranglehold and place it under an existential threat.
The situation in the north is still limited and has not turned into an all-out war; the multi-aspect challenge is not yet operating in full force. Israeli activity against Iran, as well as a joint struggle with Jordan against Iranian subversion in Jordanian territory, would make it clear to Tehran that it will bear the consequences and pay a price for promoting terrorism against Israel.
At the same time, the activity would help Israel restore its deterrence against the Iran-led axis of resistance and its image before the regional Sunni countries, to whom the Iranian subversion in Jordan reminds them that behind the smiles that Tehran spreads are hidden dark intentions.