French policy in former colonies: From ICC to protecting Syria | Analysis
By allowing France to participate as a Lebanon ceasefire observer, Israel allowed it a political foothold in its former colony • Macron also turned ICC warrants into a foreign policy bargaining chip
France’s demands for Israel to withdraw from Syrian territory – and its accusations of Israel violating the ceasefire in Lebanon while turning a blind eye to Hezbollah’s actions – all point to Macron's attempt to leverage Israel to strengthen French influence in the Middle East, particularly in its former colonies. This sheds light on the real motives behind France’s pressure on Israel in November, utilizing International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrants against Israeli leaders as a tool.
The French exploited these warrants, transforming them into a commodity for negotiation with Jerusalem. While other countries recognizing the ICC either remained silent or stated whether they would support or oppose the warrants, Paris turned it into a public spectacle. Almost all major French political figures, including then-Prime Minister Michel Barnier and National Assembly President Yaël Braun-Pivet, spoke out about the "importance of upholding Western values" and "principles of justice" embodied by the ICC warrants.
Furthermore, France harshly criticized countries that "dared" not to align with this stance. This appeared as an attempt to forge a unified front against Israel. Despite its ongoing political and economic crisis, France remains one of the key EU nations.
Simultaneously, Macron pushed for France to become a party to the Lebanon agreement. This culminated in a deal: after negotiations with Netanyahu, Paris publicly abandoned its "unyielding support for the ICC" in exchange for a role in Lebanon. The much-publicized commodity was successfully sold.
It is important to note that Arab media almost immediately noticed the shift in rhetoric. Countries that still remember the consequences of French colonization, such as Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, and even Lebanon, exhibited particularly harsh criticism of French cynicism and principle-trading.
However, Macron once again proved himself to be a master of political bargaining – he announced that he will co-chair an international conference with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in June 2025, aimed at establishing a Palestinian state. At the same time, loudly voiced accusations against Israel of attempting to derail agreement in Lebanon helped halt criticism from Arab nations.
Moreover, France’s demands for Israel to withdraw from the border zone in Syria, crucial for ensuring Israeli security, managed to rehabilitate the French image in the region.
Why does Macron need this? Amid a political crisis caused by economic collapse (the budget deficit has reached 6.1 percent of GDP, way over the EU’s 3 percent limit), and the loss of Chad, which is preparing to expel the French military contingent, the unpopular French president needs at least symbolic foreign policy victories.
Macron views the rise of US President-Elect Donald Trump as a valuable opportunity. Trump will clearly put the Middle East first because of Israel. Macron wishes to put France on Trump's short list of possible partners if France stays involved in talks about the region.
At the meeting with Trump in Paris during the rededication of the Notre Dame Cathedral, the French president attempted to push topics related to Lebanon and Syria. While Trump showed little interest in the latter, he confirmed that "The Middle East is also a big priority."
Thus, political trading on "principles of justice," in the form of ICC warrants, continues to yield dividends for France.