Key Iranian Emad missile far less accurate than estimated - report
A new report reveals that low accuracy of the Emad missile, which will be used in any future attack against Israel - explains the failure of the April attack and raises questions about its future use
As Iran continues to threaten retaliation against Israel for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, a report Tuesday in the Associated Press indicates that one of the most advanced missiles expected to be used in a future attack on Israel is much less accurate than previously thought.
This finding comes months after Israel initially claimed that 99 percent of the missiles and drones that Iran launched against Israel, during which a coalition led by the United States intercepted multiple missiles and drones. While likely an inflated number, many missiles presumably failed on launch or crashed during their flight.
Analysts at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies examined Iran's attack on Nevatim Air Force Base, located about 40 miles south of Jerusalem in the Negev Desert. Their conclusion is that Iran used its Emad missile, a version of the country's Shahab-3 missile built on a North Korean design. In the past, experts estimated that this missile was accurate to 500 meters (1640 feet), refuting figured boasted by the Islamic Republic.
Assuming Iran aimed to hit hangars housing Israeli F-35I fighter aircraft, analysts measured the distance between the hangars and the missile hit areas. An average figure of about three quarters of a mile was ascertained for the "circular error probable" - a measurement used by experts to determine the precision of a weapon based on the radius of the circle encompassing 50 percent of where the missiles landed. This is far worse than a circular error of 500 meters initially estimated by experts for the Emad missiles. Iran separately marketed the Emad to potential international buyers as having a circle of 50 meters.
American sources told AP that they estimate that 50 percent of the Iranian missiles failed during launch or crashed before reaching their target, further raising doubts about the capabilities of Iran's missile arsenal.
Iran and Israel are roughly 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) apart at the shortest distance. This makes Iran's missile program essential for any direct military attack. However, the longer the distances, the greater the minor errors in the missile guidance system, along with wind effects and other weather conditions.
In a future attack, Iran may enlist the help of allied militias such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthi rebels in Yemen to overcome Israeli defense. Israel and Hezbollah exchanged heavy gunfire during the August 25 terrorist attack on Israel, in response to the killing of senior organization member Fuad Shukr. However, Iran's poor performance in April and the continuous sabotage operations against its ballistic missile program raise questions about its ability to precisely strike targets at such a distance.