German far-right AfD could win outright majority in eastern German state vote, testing Merz government
Sunday's Saxony-Anhalt election could make the Alternative for Germany the first far-right party to govern a German state since World War Two
Voters in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt head to the polls Sunday in an election that could see the AfD take an absolute majority, particularly if several smaller parties fail to clear Germany's 5% threshold to enter parliament. Under 35-year-old leader Ulrich Siegmund, the party has polled comfortably ahead for months, with recent surveys placing the AfD at just over 40% and Merz's CDU at 23%.
Initial results are expected around 6 pm Sunday shortly after polls close.
The region is smaller in population than 60% of other German states and only 1.6 million voters are eligible to vote. However, the vote has nonetheless become a major test for the federal coalition of the CDU/CSU and the SPD, with rumors circulating in Berlin in recent months that Merz could step down following the election or be forced out by his own party.
Merz set a goal before taking office of halving AfD support through a tougher migration policy, a goal that has not been met.
An absolute majority would allow the AfD to bypass efforts by mainstream parties to keep the Far-right movement from taking power by refusing to work with it under a "firewall" policy. Nevertheless, achieving an absolute majority is a high bar under Germany's proportional system.
Should the AfD fall short, a CDU-led government under incumbent premier Sven Schulze is the likely outcome, though its shape would depend on which parties clear the 5% threshold, with the FDP and BSW both polling near or below that line.
One option would be a CDU minority government tolerated by the Left Party, a model already used in neighboring Thuringia, though Merz has ruled out formal cooperation with the Left.