France: National Rally expects majority in second election round
The united left-wing parties ultimately come in second (28-29 percent), forcing the presidential camp to retreat on core policies to block the far right
French President Emmanuel Macron emerged weakened from his bid to dissolve the parliamet after the results of the first round of legislative elections on Sunday.
The far-right National Rally can hope for a relative, or even absolute, majority in the National Assembly. "It's a failed gamble," Adelaïde Zulfikarpasic, Managing Director of the BVA polling institute, told AFP.
"Emmanuel Macron is in trouble, whereas he had established himself as a barrier against the National Front and then the (National Rally) since 2017," she added, referring to Marine LePen's former and current parties.
Macron announced the dissolution of the parliament on June after the success of the National Rally in European elections.
The head of state bet on a divided left and a second place finish for his party, behind the National Rally, which garnered more than 34 percent of the votes according to early estimates on the evening of the first round.
The move places the government at risk of cohabitation, meaning when the president and parliament are led by opposing factions. This has happened only three times in France's current form of government.
This dissolution "is one of the most reckless gestures in the history of the Fifth Republic, based on the most absurd projections," said Vincent Martigny, political scientist at the University of Nice Côte d'Azur and the Polytechnic School.
The united left, coming to the forefront, ultimately coming in second at 28 or 29 percent, is expected to force the presidential camp to retreat on core policies and unite with far-left parties if it wants to block the far right. "It really accelerates Macron's downfall. The consequences for him will be lethal. He loses everything," Martigny said.
Maccron's relative majority - 250 out of 577 in the outgoing Assembly - is expected to continue melting away in the second round.
The head of state also loses authority over his camp, "between exasperation and hatred" since his hasty decision to dissolve on June 9, noted Martigny.
"We are very angry," said a member of Macron's Renaissance party.