Israeli-Saudi normalization: The dream fades away

As the world braces for a second Donald Trump term in the White House, the prevailing sentiment in Israel is that normalization with Saudi Arabia is right around the corner. They believe it's a done deal once Trump returns to the Oval Office.

Israeli politicians and analysts describe at length how Trump is set on completing what he started at the end of his first term with the Abraham Accords, which saw the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco establish formal diplomatic ties with Israel. Once Trump takes office, they claim, Saudi Arabia will be quick to revive normalization efforts. Much to their disappointment, however, developments on the ground point to the contrary.

Besides their wish to inflict maximum brutality and dehumanize Israelis, one of the stated goals of Hamas in their October 7 attacks was to derail normalization efforts between Jerusalem and Riyadh. Of all their objectives, this is perhaps the only one they successfully achieved.

The months leading to the attacks there saw positive momentum in this regard. "Every day we get closer," Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman said in an interview with Fox News just 17 days before October 7, on chances for Saudi-Israel normalization. 

Before October 7, the Saudi demand was for "a viable path toward Palestinian statehood." Since then, Riyadh has shifted its rhetoric, demanding more progress regarding the Palestinian issue. Last week, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal Bin Farhan said Saudi-Israeli normalization is "off the table."

Then came Monday's joint Arab League and Organization of Islamic Cooperation summit in Riyadh. The host, Mohammed Bin Salman, gave what was probably the harshest public rebuke of Israel from the Saudi Crown Prince.

"The Kingdom reiterates its categorical rejection of the genocide committed by Israel against the brotherly Palestinian people" in the first public use of the term genocide by MBS in relation to Israel. The summit's resolution went as far as calling for the suspension of Israeli membership in the United Nations while calling to grant Palestine full membership status.

It's not absurd to believe that once he returns to the White House, President-elect Trump will work to rekindle Israeli-Saudi normalization efforts. However, the Middle East is different from what it was before October 7, and Trump's views on the region may have also shifted. 

Given his disappointment with the so-called "Jewish vote" in last week's elections and the surprise surge among Arab and Muslim voters, Trump may decide to "adjust" his view on the region, until now believed to be based on unwavering support of Israel. There is a real possibility Israelis are in for a surprise come January 20.

As for the Saudis, as long as daily images coming out of Gaza continue to be of widespread death and destruction, they will not be able to move an inch toward normalization due to internal public opinion widely supporting the Palestinians.

And even if or when the war in Gaza ends, there will be a lot of work to be done before any Saudi official will publicly voice support for recognizing Israel. If the Saudis want normalization, which I believe they do, anti-Israel sentiments in the Middle East are at a years-long high, limiting their ability to move forward any time soon. In the current state of affairs, Saudi-Israeli normalization remains far from reach and appears to be drifting away.