Analysis: Liberman’s 'Game of Thrones'

Even MK Avigdor Liberman himself never dreamed of becoming what he is now: the big white secular hope for the younger generation of Israel's Russian-speaking community. 

After April 2019 election that ended in an impressive growth and strengthening of the ultra-Orthodox camp, this younger generation of Russian origin is bound to be the immediate losers of the new power of Orthodoxy. Liberman, head of the secular-nationalist Yisrael Beitenu party, who positioned himself as the counter force to the orthodox parties, now empowered by the more radical Religious National Camp, has become their savior. 

They do not necessarily accept his far right agenda; most of them do not. They do not necessarily like his often-brutal style or offensive attitude towards Israeli Arabs. They just need him now. 

“Will he be able to preserve his right to veto legislation important to us, like the issue of civil marriage, for instance?” asked Katya Kupchik, one of the more vocal representatives of this generation and one of the leaders of Israel Hofsheet (Free Israel), an organization to promote religious pluralism.

"Will he have the courage to stand up for us? Will he be our guardian in the orthodox-religious government?" 

The answers, as their generation commits to support him, remain open. 

That is certainly a twist in the political history of that generation of 25 to 40-year-olds, and of Liberman himself. 

Over the 20 years since he established his then-sectarian party, Liberman’s main goal has been to become an all-Israeli party on his way to Premiership. 

In the mid 90’s he almost achieved that electoral goal that let him into the sanctuary of Ministry of Defense – a post he left just months ago – just to lose his veteran Israeli base and become again a leader of a “Russian party”. 

His party's five seats in 2019 elections are mostly thanks to Russian speakers and elderly Russian-speaking immigrants from the former Soviet Union. 

“You have only me to protect you,” he told them at campaign gatherings; “Nobody cares about you but me”. 

The fact that he did manage to convince them they need him and got their vote was a short-lived success: he crossed the electoral threshold, but his constituency is shrinking and simply dying. He knew right away that he had to re-invent himself once again as soon as possible after the recent election. 

At the same time, the approximately 200,000 young adults born in the former Soviet Union and raised in Israel realized that the results of 2019 elections are bad news for them. 

Invited to come to Israel (with their parents or alone) based on the secular law of return, they immediately encountered the problematic system of absorption based on Rabbinical law. Their Judaism was questioned, in the absence of civic marriage in Israel they were often forced to go out of the country just to marry. And they face other difficulties that make them feel unwanted. 

The recent electoral campaign made things worse: the new revelation that young Israelis of Russian origin registering to be married are being asked to take a DNA test to prove they are Jewish came as a terrible and offensive blow. 

Minister of Interior, Aryeh Deri, and head of Orthodox Shas party promoted the procedure; Liberman condemned it.

To the surprise of many ,Shas did pretty well in these elections; so did Ashkenazi Orthodox parties. With PM Netanyahu as a matchmaker, radical orthodox right-wingers joined the more moderate religious party. Netanyahu needed them to secure his block. 

There is only one person in the future coalition who can stand against this avalanche of orthodoxy and clerical legislation: Avigdor Liberman. That is, if he ever joins the coalition. Liberman has a long history of staying out of governments, leaving or joining them at his political convenience. 

At this point, he finds himself in the situation he loves most: his poor dowry of five seats only is the key to Netanyahu’s ability to form a government. He is again the kingmaker playing his favorite game of thrones. 

But no hurry. The day after voting Liberman left on family vacation in Vienna and left all others sweating and guessing what his hidden agenda is. 

He came back holding a hot potato: no changes and amendments to the military conscription law ensuring to draft ultra-Orthodox youngsters for military service, with all others. 

Orthodox parties are up in arms against the proposed law, or at least demand some amendments. Likud proposed a compromise. Liberman rejected it. He demands other adjustments to fight religious coercion. He is reborn not as the ultimate “strong leader” image he carefully protected. Now he is the leader of the secular camp, not only of Russian speaking ones, though mainly them. 

"Do not condone orthodox government, even if that means another round of elections; it is now your responsibility to take care of the secular citizens”, they write on his Facebook wall. 

He knows his political future depends on success to pass those laws and re-invent himself based on the new political situation.